QATM Coursework Assignment Custom Essay

This coursework assignment contains three sections. The first section deals with measures of central tendency and dispersion, bivariate correlation and the standard normal distribution. Section 2 covers simple bivariate regression (by hand/own calculations ? you may use a calculator or spreadsheet but you must show your workings) and the interpretation of results from a simple linear regression model. In section 3 you are asked to carry out multiple regression analysis using SPSS and to write up your results.

The sections carry the following marks:
Section 1 carries 20 marks;
Section 2 carries 30 marks;
Section 3 carries 50 marks.

Please ensure that you answer ALL three sections. Please ensure that you give appropriate time and space to each section.

The word limit is 3,000 words including any Appendices but excluding Tables and Bibliography.

Please make sure that you cite ALL the sources you?ve used and include them all in your bibliography using the Harvard style (details of the Harvard style can be obtained from the Academic Development Directorate on the Ground floor of the main SOAS building). Please read the guidance on plagiarism and how to avoid it and make sure your assignment does not contain any plagiarism (see the BSc International Management Handbook). Direct quotations must be placed in quotations marks and the source (author, year of publication and page number) included in the text. If you paraphrase from a sentence from another source you must cite the source (author, year of publication and page number) at the end of each sentence that contains paraphrased text. This is an individual assignment and it must be your own work, written by you.

 
Section 1

1.1 Consider the following data on changes in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and changes in the Rate of Unemployment in Japan.

Table 1 Annual Percentage Change in Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and in the Rate of Unemployment in Japan, 1980-2008

Year Annual Percentage Rate of Growth in Real Gross Domestic Product Annual Percentage Rate of Change in the Rate of Unemployment
1980 2.9 15.0
1981 2.8 0.0
1982 1.6 17.4
1983 3.1 0.0
1984 5.1 -3.7
1985 3.0 7.7
1986 3.8 3.6
1987 6.8 -13.8
1988 5.3 -12.0
1989 5.2 -4.5
1990 3.3 0.0
1991 0.8 4.8
1992 0.2 13.6
1993 0.9 16.0
1994 1.9 10.3
1995 2.6 6.2
1996 1.6 0.0
1997 -2.0 20.6
1998 -0.1 14.6
1999 2.9 2.1
2000 0.2 4.2
2001 0.3 8.0
2002 1.4 -3.7
2003 2.7 -9.6
2004 1.9 -6.4
2005 2.0 -6.8
2006 2.4 -4.9
2007 -1.2 2.6
2008 -6.3 25.0
Source: The World Bank Database available at https://data.worldbank.org/country/japan

a) Calculate the mean, mode, median, range, variance and standard deviation for the Rate of Growth in Real GDP (N.B. you only need to do this for 1 variable: the Annual Percentage Rate of Growth of Real GDP shown in column 2 above).
b) Discuss the strengths and weaknesses of each measure in (a) above. Consider the usefulness of the different measures in isolation and in combination. Please ensure that your discussion of the strengths and weaknesses of each measure relates to this dataset; for example, you should consider the effects of removing outliers from your calculations.

To gain marks it is important to show each step of your calculations in a Table with clear headings.

1.2 Calculate Pearson?s correlation coefficient between the rate of growth in GDP and the rate of change in the unemployment rate and discuss its size, sign and significance. (Hint: perform a t-test to do this). Comment on the question of causality.

To gain marks it is important to show each step of your calculations in a Table with clear headings.

?oOo?

2. A researcher has collected data on Gross National Product (GNP) per capita across all countries and noted this variable is distributed with a mean of 10,600 and a standard deviation of 13,518.

a) Explain what a z-score does and how it may be used by researchers.

b) Calculate the probability that a country?s GNP per capita exceeds 20,000.

c) Calculate the probability that a country?s GNP per capita is less than 10,000.

Section 2
The World Bank is interested in examining the factors influencing Real Gross Fixed Capital Formation (or Gross Investment), I, in Egypt over the period 1990-2010. They have carried out a literature review and some initial theoretical work which has led them to develop the hypothesis that changes in demand (G) influence investment (I) and they wish to test this hypothesis using annual data for the period 1990-2010.

Table 2 Real Gross Fixed Capital Formation (Investment) and the Annual Change in Gross Domestic Product in Egypt, 1990-2010
Year Real Gross Fixed Capital Formation in US$
(Gross Investment, I) Change in GDP in US$ (G)
(GDPt ? GDPt-1)
1990 13715540291 3537466904
1991 12284086389 707493381
1992 11812427781 2937823941
1993 10234594468 2008058605
1994 11300698058 2830193130
1995 12025648500 3438333804
1996 13390261095 3866321511
1997 15181315127 4467992602
1998 18618594024 3464632737
1999 19350607122 5452179558
2000 18905033932 5086305664
2001 18491287398 3529517732
2002 19509740404 2450328553
2003 17804444576 3379328925
2004 18902770703 4468448745
2005 21590779381 5082860448
2006 24567821250 8126991155
2007 30406291712 8992753099
2008 34909477220 9723154434
2009 31541877622 6822626189
2010 33264835556 7844195885

a) The researcher hypothesises that the relationship between investment (I) and growth in demand (G) is given by the following linear model:

It = β1 + β2Gt + ut

Set out a Null and Alternative hypothesis to test the hypothesis that changes in demand (G) influence investment (I).

b) Calculate estimates of β1 and β2 using the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression method.

c) Consider the estimate of the constant term β1 and discuss whether it is significant and meaningful.

d) Consider the estimate of the slope coefficient β2 and discuss its size and sign. Use this estimate and a t-test to determine whether the hypothesis that G influences I is accepted or rejected.

e) Explain the meaning of the adjusted R2 statistic and comment on its size.

f) Discuss the limitations of the results attained and suggest further diagnostic tests.
Section 3

3. The Chinese government is keen to learn whether investment in private companies in China is crowded out by investment by state owned enterprises. They are also interested in the effect of investment by foreign owned enterprises. They have provided data on private company investment in fixed capital, investment by state owned enterprises and investment by foreign owned enterprises by province. With this dataset it is possible to examine the variation in private company investment across provinces. Crowding out occurs when investment by the state reduces private sector investment. Carry out a literature search on crowding out using the Web of Science database and use the literature and theoretical reasoning to derive carefully specified hypotheses to test the crowding out hypothesis and the impact of investment by foreign funded firms. Test these using OLS regression analysis (bi-variate and multivariate) in SPSS. Comment on the goodness of fit of your model(s). Set out the hypotheses you are testing and comment on the size, sign and significance of the regression coefficients (β?s). Carry out diagnostic tests and discuss possible problems, such as multicollinearity, autocorrelation, simultaneous equations bias and the limitations of your results.

Data: Use the data set on the BLE on China, especially the variables
Literature: there is a vast literature on crowding out. Carry out a literature search using the Social Science Citation Index to locate relevant literature.

Write-up your results clearly and carefully. Please do not simply cut and paste output from SPSS ? look at how the results are presented in the articles discussed in Tutorial 1 (on BLE) and follow that style of presentation. Note that results that reject hypotheses are just as valuable as results that confirm hypotheses. The key thing is to write up your results as clearly and impartially as possible using your knowledge of quantitative methods and regression analysis.

 

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